Orta’s Power 5 : Goalkeepers

So quite recently it’s came out via Angus Kinnear that Victor Orta has a list of 5 players per position for whenever we need to sign a new player he immediately has options at the ready.

This won’t be the first and won’t be the last of this type of article, but I couldn’t let this opportunity slip as I love scouting articles and one for each position is even better.

This is going to be the first in a series of short articles looking at each position in turn. To follow the series keep an eye on my Twitter-https://twitter.com/MartinCBMRiley where I will be sharing my articles.

I will firstly identify what our current best players in each position bring to the role and what attributes a player needs in a Bielsa side for the role in question.

All of the stats featured will be via FBREF & won’t include players who haven’t started 10+ games.

Personally I feel Bielsa see’s distribution as the main strength his GK needs to have, over other’s. However the obvious shot stopping capability is there too, but in my eye’s distribution trumps Shot stopping for Bielsa.

Our current best GK is undoubtedly Illan Meslier, Meslier has a number of strength’s. Firstly his shot stopping is strong with a 72% save success(9th in Premier League), 32% Clean Sheet ratio(10th in PL) & PSxG-GA(Post Shot xG Minus Goals Allowed) of +1.4%(12th in PL), which basically means he’s stopped 1.4xG of shots from becoming goals which the average GK wouldn’t have saved.

Secondly his distribution is insane. He has attempted the most passes for any GK with 31.3 p90, the most throws with 7.5 & he keeps his distribution short with his passing being on average 28.9 yards(2nd shortest) & the shortest distribution from Goal Kick’s with 31.1 Yards only launching his GK’s 33% of the time, which again is the lowest in the league.

Not only does he make a lot of passes, his pass completion is extraordinary. He completes 83% of his overall passes which when you look at in this manner it may not look good.

However when you break this down over distance of passes, his short passing completion is 99%(198/200), his mid range passing is 98.7%(385/390), it’s the long range passing(40 Yards+) that brings his average down, this stands at 59.7%(218/365)

However just to bring his long passing into context with other top PL GK’s. Hugo Lloris-54.5%, Ederson-61.3%, Alisson-66.6%, Kasper Schmeichel-51.3% & David De Gea-48.8%. So clearly Illan’s 59.7% is just fine.

Firstly I want to identify targets who replace Meslier(In the unlikely event he is sold) & secondly to replace Kiko(A more likely outcome)

So firstly lets look at a Meslier replacement, here’s a visual to show GK’s in the Big 5 league’s, who have more than 10 90’s played & are younger than 26(Had to go a few years older than Meslier as not many play regularly as young as him)

Going off the above, I have identified 5 targets.

Any of the above targets seem capable of playing as a GK in a Bielsa side, they have strong shot stopping & a similar profile to Meslier. All of the above would be capable of playing as a GK at least from a stats point of view.

One of the above I want to look at in more detail is Gautier Larsonneur of Stade Brest. Gautier is 24 years old and has been playing regularly for Brest since they were in Ligue 2 in 17/18 when he was only 20 years old. He has held on to the starting position since promotion to Ligue 1 and had a very good opening season in Ligue 1 for 19/20 saving 75.8%(6th in Ligue 1)of the shots he faced and he had the 3rd best PSxG-GA(Post Shot xG minus goals allowed) of +6.7, basically meaning he saved 6.7xG worth of shots the average GK wouldn’t have saved.

This season however he hasn’t had as good a season, with PSxG-GA in considerable negative figures at -6xG meaning he has allowed 6xG of shots to become goals that wouldn’t for the average keeper he has faced slightly more shots on target p90 going from 4.81 to 4.88 but this wouldn’t allow for such a drastic change in his PSxG figures.

One positive in his 2nd season though is that his distribution has changed, the average length of his Goal Kick’s and average pass length have both decreased. Goal Kicks going from 38.9 Yards to 35.3 Yards & passing going from 39.2 Yards to 36.6 Yards and lastly he isn’t launching(40 yard plus) his passes as often going from 43.3% to 36.9%.

The above distribution could be a result of a change in style by Brest that potentially they are trying a more possession orientated style? However the stats don’t back this up as their average possession in 19/20 was 49.7% and it dropped in 20/21 to 48.2%. In addition their short passes have stayed at a similar amount per game and also they have similar amount of def 3rd touches.

Since the change isn’t a result of Brest changing style this would indicate that Larsonneur has either improved his passing ability or he is being asked to play it shorter more often. Either way it is good that he is capable of changing the way he distributes.

I had trouble finding full match videos of Larsonneur(Really wish I had Wyscout)but I was able to find a full video of a match in 19/20 against Girondins de Bordeaux. I have put together some clips which I liked in this match.

Firstly the above pass despite going out of play is the kind of pass we would expect Meslier to make, he has an easier option quite close to him but he attempts the riskier one knowing if it comes off we can start an attack easier.

In this clip there is some pretty basic distribution, however it shows that his team are confident passing the ball to him. The final pass wasn’t accurate but he was aiming for the winger in a similar way we see often from Meslier.

I really like the 2nd pass of his in this sequence, he’s under pressure he could just boot the ball out of play but Brest are chasing the game, there isn’t a lot of time left in the game so they need to keep hold of the ball, and they do.

The above is quite simply a superb save, it is struck well and with power and he dives across quickly and gets a hand to it, also quickly picks it up off the floor, a lot of keepers would have tipped this shot wide for a corner but he manages to take the power from it with his save and keep it in play.

There is plenty to go off on Larsonneur in the above clips and if we were to sell Meslier he could be a good option and one which wouldn’t be too costly.

Regards to a backup GK to replace Kiko Casilla I have identified GK’s over 30 who may be happy being a backup GK as they aren’t playing a lot with their current club.

Of the above I would choose Angelo Da Costa Junior, despite him being 37 years old he should be capable of playing for another couple of seasons as a backup GK, he has a similar profile to Meslier & would be available for Free.

He is used to playing a lot of passes per90 having similar to Meslier and has a strong save success rate which again is comparable to Meslier.

However most of the above GK’s should be able to be a backup GK in a Premier League side, most are of a similar age to Kiko, and considering how much of a divisive player Kiko is amongst the fanbase it’s quite possible he could be facing a change of clubs in the summer.

Summary

Personally I feel it is very unlikely that we will look to change our Number 1 GK in the coming season. There is a chance that Mesliers impressive performances have drawn some admiring glances from other teams, but considering Meslier age and potential we would expect a very sizeable transfer fee, in Covid times clubs are spending less than they were and I feel they would be even less inclined to spend big on a Goalkeeper over other outfield positions.

As previously said I think it’s more likely that we will see Kiko Casilla exit the club, however despite it being more likely, I still don’t think it’s very likely. Bielsa has shown his support for Kiko this season on more than one occasion, and I doubt he would be actively looking to offload the spaniard.

However there is also the chance that other key figures at the club could see what a divisive figure Kiko is amongst the fanbase and decide that Kiko can move on to greener pastures where he wouldn’t cause drama.

This brings me to the end of my article, I hope you enjoyed my work. The next part of Orta’s Power 5 is going to focus on Right backs, so fans of Luke Ayling won’t want to miss it.